What's up folks? How's life?
So, here is my analysis and predictions for the WSOP final table coming up on Sunday.
I think Matt Gianneti is the best bet to win and good odds on betfair at 8.0 or so (odds are based purely on stack size but in reality he should be 4.0 or so)... he also won WPT Malta during the 3 month break, for €300k). Like O'Dea he never shows the worst hand when all in. Even in flips. He's a live cash grinder living in Vegas, 25/50+. Great professional attitude overall. Not overwhelmed at all, focused though not scared or nervous, knows he is v capable, knows if cards break well then he has vg shot to win. Not concerned at all about cashing big, doesn't have any financial pressure. Basically any competent cash game player of highish stakes has massive advantage over regular tourney guys as structure is excellent, so it plays a lot like a cash game, especially when have other capable players at the table (as opposed to tourney shove-fest donks).
O'Dea obv excellent. Makes absolutely zero mistakes, plays all hands so well, ultra pot controlled (his best strength). Composure is superb, everyone very very scared of him... not of his aggression, but knowing he never making a mistake... giving impression that if they play him that he will already have the best hand. He so totally relaxed.. didn't bother showing up for post FT interviews or any media rubbish... just slept in (so that had to make video about him from previous footage, lol... didn't play any poker for two months, ran a marathon in Donegal in Aug, played some tennis, didn't watch any of the WSOP online, didn't buy anything big, said he and Donnacha didn't talk any strategy at all or anything like that, lol). Think he'll be unlucky to finish outside of top three. Reckon he and Matt will be HU (Or else Matt and USCPhildo). He made a final table of WSOP Europe Omaha side event in Cannes last month too but busted in ninth or eighth. (small amount of entrants too). Big problem is he has one of worst positions at the table, to the right of Ben Lamb who is excellent (to start with at least). Also, whole bunch of Irish going over to support him... always ultra rowdy and horribly drunken (e.g. When Marty Smyth won Omaha 10k bracelet 2 years ago, and he's now basically busto)... feel like that will be a bad thing, distracting / embarrassing etc as new WSOP FT is set up as a stage with surrounding stadium of supporters etc. Obv hoping he wins though as he nice guy and Irish. Love to see him win, will be cheering for him.
Ben Lamb is having incredible year (won player of the WSOP this year with ~4 finals tables and two bracelets) and generally very good, but has bad position (apart from on Eoghan). Lives in Vegas, hangs with ZeeJustin etc... def awesome player and knows exactly what to do all the time... in the run up to FT he played amazing... bluffs against players who were bluffable / scared... checking back second nuts against good players trapping him, and excellent value bets etc. (pretty good example here against the leader at the time who was playing really crazy and was total donk http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SQGaagsNXP4)
Lamb is tiny bit wild though... feel like he will make a three barrel bluff (with outs along the way) that might get called. (Probably by good internet player like USCPhildo or Matt). As a note, he got fairly lucky against Matt earlier, rivering gold after Matt was trapping him perfectly (see hand below, Matt had Ace Nine), but to his credit getting big value when he did hit river (and may not have bet again if he missed). To Matt's credit he thought about folding for a long long time. And after the hand Matt had not much left but played perfect again afterwards and made final table with decent stack. Awesome play on the final table bubble, didn't freak out at all having lost huge pot.
Lamb has big live tells though (pretty obv when full of shit), which could cause him problems if others review the videos effectively.
With the blinds at $150,000-$300,000, the action began with Lamb opening $675,000 from the cutoff. Giannetti called from the big blind and the flop came down Ah9h2d. Giannetti checked his option and Lamb c-bet $700,000. The turn brought a 7d and Giannetti checked once again. This time, Lamb checked behind him and both players saw a 2h on the river. Giannetti checked again and Lamb slid 4 million into the pot. After more then 10 agonizing minutes in the tank, Giannetti found a call and looked dejected as his flopped top two pair were crushed on the river by Lamb’s 2 3 off.
Phil Collins is USCPhildo from online, vg player, makes basically zero mistakes though finds himself forced to gamble sometimes when makes a play that doesn't work properly, e.g. reraising King Jack and needing to call a pot bet shove against something like Ace Ten. Could easily make it to HU. Def money means a lot to him though. Especially as US players can't play online anymore. He's won 2 mil+ online in total (winnings, not profit), but just 200k or so live prior to wsop FT (where they've all already locked up 790k).
Basih (or something like that) is an old guy, pretty wack, runs a card room in Panama or somewhere like that. Generally poor player, in comparison to others. Everyone hoping to get HU against him, lol.
Anton, Ukranian guy, not vg either, just rode a decent stack from far out. Also, he only has 25% share of his action so the money is super important to him... i.e. will be kinda scared money, trying to inch up the spots.
Sam Holden (not related to Tony Holden), English guy, conservative kind of guy, plays a short stack fairly well but apart from that has little chance I think. He also only has ~20% of his action. He in last place right now. Lot of support from good English players though so could get great advice and get into a good position... with people expecting him to gamble or play poorly but actually he playing decently / tighter than expected.
Staszko is Czech I think, and the leader, but basically rode a big stack. Expect him to try force action, wield big stack... which is a mistake. Everyone else who did that at recent wsop ft's busted early, like 5th. Getting sandbagged and then check raised etc... suddenly not leader and freaks out.
Pius, german guy... know nothing about him... probably good for him... quiet... and german, lol. V tough table though so can't see him doing so well.
Crazy nine person prediction:
1) Matt
2) O'Dea
3) Phil
4) Lamb
5) Anton
6) Holden
7) Staszko
8) Badih
9) Pius
What do you think? Who do you think will win?
Can't wait to watch this live!
Go Ireland!
P.S. JPeterson, where are all the hot chick drunken biker stories? We're missing your trip reports and pics! :)




















