» What is EV?
One of the most used terms in poker is EV, which stands for expected value. In poker, we constantly hear about making good decisions. EV is how one quantifies which are good decisions to make or not. If you make +EV decision, statistics and percentages say that you will make money. In the short run, you may lose the hand due to the nature of luck in poker, but EV is calculating the long term probabilities of what should happen over a limitless sample of hands. If you make a -EV play, you will lose money in the long run. By calculating your EV, you are determining the amount of money you would win or lose on average, on your bet.
Any situation that is 50-50, like a coin flip, would be considered neutral EV, as in the long run you should both win an equal amount of times. In poker, most situations will be +EV or -EV. To be a long term winning player, you want to make more +EV decisions. Whether you win or lose the actual hand is immaterial to your long term expect value for playing the hand correctly.
The math associated with calculating EV can be a bit involved for some situations, but I will illustrate a couple hands to show the multiple EV situations encountered.
Example 1:
Let’s say you playing $1-2 NLHE cash game and you are dealt Aces on the button. An early position player opens to $6 with 9’s. You raise (three bet) their bet to $18. While they can’t see your cards, if they could, to call would be a -EV decision to call as they are only 20% to win the hand, and getting 2.25 to 1 on their money. That is their first -EV decision in the hand.
They can’t see your cards. They might assume you have two overcards, A,K where they are a slight favorite at 52% to win the hand, and thus slight +EV to call, so they decide to call. On a Q,8,4 flop, they check to you and you continuation bet $26, around 2/3 of the $39 pot. While it is again -EV for them to call, they suspect you may have missed the flop completely with your A,K and call again. On the turn, a 9 comes. Your opponent made two -EV decision and yet hit their two outer (4%) on the turn and they will likely win a lot of money from you. This example shows how in the short term you may make the absolute correct EV decision, that in the long run will make you good money in poker, but the short term luck went against you.
Example 2:
This hand you have a suited 8,9 and call a middle position’s opening $6 bet. On a flop of 6,7,A, with two of your suit, they bet $7 into the $15 pot. It costs you $7 to call the pot of $22 giving you slightly more than 3-1 on your money to call. But is it +EV for you to call. You have a straight and flush draw. That gives you 9 flush outs and 6 open ended straight outs for 15 outs. You have seen 9 of the 52 cards in the deck, with 43 unseen. The odds then are 2.87-1 of you hitting (15/43). As your odds of hitting your hand are greater than the odds it costs to call the flop bet, your decision is +EV, even though you haven’t made a hand and you are chasing your draws. If they had bet $10 into the $15 pot, you would have gotten 2.5-1 to call when your odds are worse than that to hit, so it would have become a -EV decision to call.
In each hand, you or your opponent can manipulate their bet sizing, relative to the pot, to make a hand go from +EV to -EV for you to play. This is the art and science of poker. Knowing how many cards will improve your hand and what size your opponent is betting relative to the pot, your pot odds, are essential to understanding your EV. Players who make more +EV decisions than their opponents will be winning players long term. Those that don’t pay attention to EV won’t.
